Going Back to What Future?!

“GREAT SCOTT!!”

Christopher Lloyd as Doc in Back to the Future

Sometimes change is linear, measured and metronomic; a subtle dance between progress and regress. But changes can also be abrupt, massive and meteoric. Those of us who have lived through large scale natural disasters, such as the Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011, know this all too well. It’s not uncommon for significant changes to abruptly occur that affect a distinct region or country. But it’s rare for these to occur nearly simultaneously on a global scale as is the case with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Our ability to adapt rapidly to abrupt changes is flawed to a degree. We have primal ‘lizard brain’ responses to immediate dangers and fears, and far more elaborate and slow emotional changes. Right now, we can see state changes occurring daily in individuals, and indeed entire nations, as people move through various phases of denial and resistance before crossing a threshold and moving towards acceptance and action. I’m no exception to the rule, but it’s distressing to see some significant leaders struggle spectacularly in these moments of crisis. History will judge them in time for their actions; both the adept and the inept. Thousands are already dying as different countries wrestle between saving lives, or saving economies.

The Spanish Flu of 1918 wiped out approximately 3% of the global population. Nations and individuals weakened by World War 1 were hit hard, and especially the poor and disenfranchised. The current pandemic will also be a litmus test of discrimination and disparity, and it will be a brutal exposing of institutionalised inequality. For every Allan Merrill (Joan Jett’s guitarist and co-writer of “I love Rock’n’Roll”) there will be thousands of others who are lost without fanfare to this world and to their loved ones. We are only really getting started on what may be the most fundamental shift in collective modern social dynamics and behaviours. This won’t be over quickly, and the ‘normal’ life we return to on the other side won’t quite be the same.

Jim Collins, in his definitive work “Good to Great”, brought the notion of the Stockdale Paradox to light. James Stockdale, a US Navy Admiral imprisoned for 7 years during the war in Vietnam, observed that it was the optimists who tended to die first. Those who had their hearts on fixed dates of imagined release tended to die of disappointment when their imagined release did not eventuate by that Christmas, or this birthday. Those who held to an unconditional principles centered on the belief of eventual freedom but focused on the day by day challenge of survival were more likely to make it. As a natural optimist myself this is cause for consideration.

So how do we steel ourselves for the long haul? What lessons for the better can we take from the current chaos in play? And most importantly, to what version of the future do we want to return to?

No matter which way we look at it, there is no going back to the way things were before. The world has shifted. Cruise ships, international flights, open borders and other bastions of personal global freedom may never recover to the same level. Most countries will end up with various versions of voluntary or mandatory lockdowns that last beyond 6 weeks. This is a critical point, as this corresponds to the typical amount of time that it takes humans to adjust and adapt to new behaviours. Getting people to adhere to workout routines, diets or personal habit changes that last beyond the 6 week mark to become a new part of patterned behaviour is a significant milestone. Usually people overachieve against a previous norm in the first 2-3 weeks, and then adopt only a few behaviours that remain beyond the 6 week measure.

How will our patterns of behaviour be changed in the coming weeks? The structure of work and school may have shifted. The ability to have a global virtual presence without poisoning the environment with excessive travel should hopefully gain more social currency. Learning to be productive as individuals and groups from home to reduce mindless ‘groundhog day’ commuting should hopefully become more normative for those who can work through digital communications. Having less cars on the roads is better for cycling, which increases personal and community health. Being more involved in our kids learning, and teaching them the critical importance of how to use facts in a post-truth world is perhaps our greatest calling right now.

So wherever you are, whoever you are; stay safe, stay sane, and spend some time re-imagining and creating a future that is more kind to yourselves, your communities and to the natural worlds that we inhabit.